미국 채권 vs 주식 그래프 비교

2007: Beginning of the Global Financial Crisis
• The U.S. subprime mortgage crisis worsened as home prices fell and mortgage defaults increased.
• Several major financial institutions, including Bear Stearns and Countrywide Financial, faced serious liquidity problems.
• In August, BNP Paribas froze three funds due to subprime exposure, signaling the crisis spreading to Europe.
• Central banks, including the Federal Reserve (Fed), started intervening to provide liquidity.

2008: Global Financial Crisis & Lehman Brothers Collapse
• The crisis peaked in September 2008, when Lehman Brothers filed for bankruptcy, triggering a market panic.
• AIG, a major insurer, was bailed out by the U.S. government.
• Stock markets crashed, and global credit markets froze, leading to a deep economic recession.
• Governments launched massive bailouts (e.g., TARP in the U.S.), and central banks cut interest rates sharply.

2012: European Debt Crisis Intensifies
• Several European countries, especially Greece, Spain, and Italy, faced severe sovereign debt crises.
• Concerns about a potential Eurozone breakup led to market turmoil.
• The European Central Bank (ECB) stepped in, with Mario Draghi (ECB President) promising to do “whatever it takes” to save the euro.
• Greece received multiple bailout packages, but austerity measures led to protests.

2014: Oil Price Crash & Russia’s Financial Crisis
• Global oil prices plummeted from over $100 per barrel to below $50 by the end of the year.
• Causes:
• Increased U.S. shale oil production.
• OPEC (led by Saudi Arabia) refused to cut production.
• Weak global demand, especially from China and Europe.
• The Russian ruble collapsed, leading to a financial crisis in Russia.
• The Russian central bank had to raise interest rates drastically.
• Western sanctions over Russia’s actions in Ukraine worsened the situation.

2019: Trade Wars, Slow Growth, and Repo Market Stress
1. U.S.-China Trade War Escalation
• The U.S. and China imposed billions of dollars in tariffs on each other’s goods.
• This created uncertainty in global trade, leading to slower economic growth worldwide.
• Stock markets were volatile, reacting to trade negotiations and tariff changes.
2. Global Economic Slowdown
• The International Monetary Fund (IMF) and World Bank downgraded global growth forecasts.
• Germany (Europe’s largest economy) and China experienced slower growth.
• Central banks, including the Federal Reserve (Fed) and European Central Bank (ECB), responded with interest rate cuts and stimulus measures.
3. Repo Market Liquidity Crisis (U.S.)
• In September 2019, the U.S. repo market (where banks and financial institutions borrow short-term funds) faced a severe liquidity crunch.
• Repo rates (overnight borrowing rates) spiked from around 2% to over 10%, causing panic.
• The Federal Reserve intervened by injecting liquidity into the market through overnight repo operations, preventing a bigger crisis.
4. Brexit Uncertainty
• The UK faced continued uncertainty over Brexit as the deadline was repeatedly delayed.
• Markets reacted to the possibility of a no-deal Brexit, which could have disrupted trade and financial markets in Europe.
5. Stock Market Rally & Interest Rate Cuts
• Despite uncertainties, U.S. stock markets hit record highs in late 2019.
• The Federal Reserve cut interest rates three times (July, September, and October) to support the economy.

Though 2019 had financial stresses, it was not a full-blown crisis year like 2008. However, many of these issues (trade tensions, repo crisis, economic slowdown) set the stage for 2020’s COVID-19 economic shock.


TLT와 IEF는 미국 국채에 투자하는 채권 ETF들이야. 각각 장기 국채(20년 이상), **중기 국채(7~10년)**에 투자하는데, 이 두 개의 ETF에서 말하는 **Yield(수익률)**은 보통 아래와 같은 의미로 사용돼.

1. 배당 수익률 (Dividend Yield)
• 채권 ETF도 보유 채권에서 나오는 **이자(쿠폰)**를 바탕으로 매월 배당을 지급해.
• 최근 12개월 동안 지급된 배당금을 기준으로 ETF 가격과 비교한 값.

TLT vs. IEF의 배당 수익률 비교
• TLT: 보통 4~5% 범위 (최근 장기 국채 금리가 높아져서 증가)
• IEF: 약 3~4% 수준

(실제 수치는 시장 상황에 따라 변동되므로 확인 필요!)

2. SEC Yield (30-Day Yield)
• 최근 30일 동안 지급된 이자를 연환산한 수익률로, ETF의 실질적인 배당 지급 능력을 나타냄.
• 장기 국채인 TLT가 IEF보다 수익률 변동성이 크며, 금리가 상승하면 수익률도 증가하는 특징이 있어.

3. Yield to Maturity (만기 수익률, YTM)
• ETF가 보유한 국채를 만기까지 보유했을 때 기대되는 평균 연간 수익률.
• 최근 기준으로 보면:
• TLT (장기국채): 약 4.5~5.5%
• IEF (중기국채): 약 4~5%

(실제 수치는 매일 변동하므로 업데이트된 데이터를 봐야 함.)

정리하면
• TLT: 장기 국채 ETF → 금리 변동에 민감, 배당 수익률과 YTM이 IEF보다 상대적으로 높음.
• IEF: 중기 국채 ETF → 금리 변동 리스크가 적지만, 장기 국채 대비 수익률이 낮음.

지금처럼 미국 금리가 높은 시기에는 두 ETF 모두 배당 수익률이 올라가 있지만, 장기적으로는 금리 하락 시 TLT가 더 유리할 가능성이 있어.

보라색 QQQ
분홍색 SPY
파란색 SCHD
하늘색 TLT
초록색 IEF